Canberra, Australia/Odds

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Never tell me the odds
Han Solo

With the city at about 800 square kilometers, compared to our graticule which is around 10,000 square kilometers, we can expect to have the target land in the city 8% of the time, or around two and a half times per 31 day month. Given 52 Saturdays in a year, we can estimate that the target will land nearby on about four of them.

Historical searches support this estimate, with 11 instances of the target falling within Canberra between 2008-01-01 and 2008-05-26 (146 days) - 8%; and with two of those instances being Saturdays, extrapolating to five Saturdays in Canberra per year. With surrounding areas also relatively accessible, it is not unreasonable to expect us to make a successful Saturday geohash at least once per month (on average)

The hits were:

2008-01-06
In a paddock/park a short distance south of Drake Brockman Drive, Higgins
2008-01-16
On the shoulder of the northbound lane of the Tuggeranong Parkway, just north of the Cotter Road overpass, just south of where the Cotter Road slip-lane enters the Parkway
2008-01-28
Across the road from 73 Warragamba Avenue, Duffey
2008-01-29
On the land between the Monaro Highway and the Mugga lane tip – it’s in Canberra, but less accessible than some that are not
2008-02-02
On the nature strip south of Antill St Hackett, near where it crosses Phillip Avenue. With adequate parking, even.
2008-02-15
Median strip down the middle of Drakeford Drive near Bonython
2008-03-27
Gunghalin Cemetary
2008-03-28
Next to the pool in the back yard of 8 Wickham Crescent, Forrest
2008-04-15
Just behind the airport, next to a farm house
2008-04-30
In the front yard of a town house on Pennington Crescent, Calwell
2008-05-17
On a logging trail in a pine forest near Sutton Road